Ransomware Dystopia Just Around the Corner

Cybercrime magazine predicts that ransomware attacks will hit a business, consumer, or device every 2 seconds by 2031, with total costs to victims in excess of $265 billion. Factors in play include low prosecution rates and the willingness of victims to pay. The impact on the global economy will be profound.

These kinds of predictions have been around long enough to make what sounds like hyperbole look prescient in retrospect. On the downside. For example, Cybersecurity Ventures forecasted ransomware damages of $5 billion in 2017, up from $325 million in 2015 — a 15X increase in just two years. It’s been uphill from there. In 2021 the damages were 57 times more than in 2015.

“Our damage cost estimates may be conservative regarding the true economic damage ransomware causes,” writes Cybercrime. “Still, with so many dollars at stake, insurers are rapidly rethinking their approach to the ransomware plague.

Ransomware is transitioning from encryption-only to threats, extortion, and theft. Backups are no longer a sufficient defense. The most efficient gangs conduct covert surveillance on their targets, steal data, and threaten to publish information online unless their demands are met.

One gang, HardBit, entices victims to reveal the details of their cyber insurance policies to set a ransom price. Thus, the increasing unaffordability of cyber-insurance. The trend is for economic costs to be paid indirectly by consumers and the general public, aka inflation.

Manufacturing and industrial sectors had the most ransomware incidents in Q1 2023, with 45 percent of ransomware and extortion attacks taking place in the United States. Professional services, engineering, construction, healthcare, and education were commonly targeted. Some sectors are ill-prepared to cope, and many gangs now specialize in striking vulnerable industries.