Trade Turmoil, Rising Global Tensions, Will Increase Cybersecurity Risks

The trade turmoil from the imposition of sweeping tariffs is likely to include an increase in covert cyber espionage, hacktivism, and financially motivated cybercrime, writes Robert Lemos in Dark Reading.

While the temporary 90-day tariff pause offers some relief, it is not expected to reverse the broader trends. If recessionary pressures mount, companies may cut back on cybersecurity spending, a downward spiral that leaves them more vulnerable to digital threats.

The tariffs have already shaken the markets, and historically, economic disruption has gone hand in hand with an uptick in cybercrime. The Lemos article quotes Casey Ellis, of the security firm Bugcrowd.

“Haste is the natural enemy of good security decision-making, and panic is easily exploitable, so cybercriminals in particular will likely rise to the challenge,” says Ellis.

An early example: In the 1980s, a chaotic political and economic landscape in Africa led to a recession in Nigeria. Ellis notes that the recession had a disproportionate impact on the banking sector, and some laid-off workers developed and spread the so-called “Nigerian prince scam” via the revolutionary new technology of email.

Cyberattacks from nations allied to the United States are unlikely due to the high diplomatic costs, but covert cyber espionage and politically motivated cyber operations will likely escalate. Rogue states and adversaries can be expected to take advantage of the trade turmoil.

Legal teams should prepare clients for an increasingly hostile digital environment. Counsel should emphasize resilience planning, vendor risk assessments, and response readiness. Now is a critical time to reinforce data protection, incident response, and engagement with regulators and government agencies.